Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 21.458046 23.462162 25.697178 28.401326 31.622080 35.385506 40.193747
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 18.666644 21.313081 24.501634 28.725228 34.338896 41.818860 53.094266
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 16.730000 19.708404 23.509328 28.918466 36.813733 48.713234 70.110697
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.154520 18.259151 22.392712 28.610842 38.414438 54.915324 90.444562
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 14.051787 17.250229 21.664109 28.635930 40.443035 62.647766 121.530829
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.090879 16.303638 20.863174 28.354373 41.833045 69.883063 162.764606
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.290380 15.488826 20.135004 28.029846 43.021509 77.388439 223.743555
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.631336 14.809525 19.521537 27.773883 44.251582 85.852086 326.741019
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.080995 14.238647 19.007130 27.593847 45.579629 95.689177 531.362391
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.504917 13.584058 18.293875 26.943553 45.704462 102.125347 854.717113
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.339045 13.533153 18.541679 28.106011 50.395668 129.992947 11556.350606
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.940832 13.094351 18.104025 27.872676 51.568572 145.628323 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.620946 12.763147 17.828832 27.946860 53.682952 170.804499 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.348398 12.489664 17.629335 28.150700 56.292833 206.764673 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.088106 12.219482 17.412141 28.285709 58.800101 252.893351 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.784608 11.862200 17.012250 27.965875 59.766547 291.857310 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.550340 11.605488 16.774344 27.979193 61.926010 362.940943 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.295720 11.302268 16.429931 27.703480 62.985724 433.592071 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.054218 11.009676 16.086207 27.389132 63.829474 520.114543 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.837206 10.748466 15.784782 27.141908 64.895074 647.083247 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.642942 10.517167 15.525526 26.968243 66.247975 851.174829 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.407855 10.207733 15.101147 26.342198 65.457317 952.228763 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.382497 10.253301 15.357625 27.460553 73.167081 3469.406442 NaN